In 2023, key Senate races will emerge as Democrats face a tough 2024 map

• The 2024 Senate elections — which will run concurrent with the presidential race — are approaching.
• Democrats will have to defend many vulnerable incumbents within swing and GOP-heavy States.
• The party has performed well in the three previous cycles of navigating difficult Senate races.

The Democrats defeated all political expectations in the 2022 midterm elections by holding onto their Senate majority. Every incumbent secured reelection, and then-Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor. John Fetterman flipping open seat vacated by Pat Toomey, a retiring Republican senator.

Not only will Democrats retain control of the chamber in January, but the upper chamber will shift from a 50-50 split — with Senate control currently resting on Vice President Kamala Harris’ tiebreaking abilities — to a 51-49 majority led by Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York. Despite Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Silena changing to the Democratic Party to register as an Independent she will retain her committee assignments through her former political party. Even though she was not able to vote, the lawmaker downplayed any rumours that she would alter her voting habits.

However, the class of senators who were elected and reelected in 2018 — a Democratic wave year that saw several vulnerable red-state members of the party win and lose — will face a challenging map in 2024.

Many of the party’s success will be tied to President Joe Biden. Although he has not yet stated if he plans on running for reelection it is highly probable that he will. But former President Donald Trump — whose political brand took a huge hit last month after he endorsed multiple candidates who lost their races — has already thrown his hat into the race.

In 2024, there will be 34 seats up for grabs. Twenty of them are held by Democrats. 11 are held by Republicans. Three are held by Independents.

Here are some key states that both the parties will likely target.

Arizona

Sinema’s party change gave Democrats jitters as they celebrated Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock winning the runoff. However, members of the party are generally assured that her decision will not affect their ability to pass legislation or approve judicial nominations. Sinema’s 2024 election is another matter. She has yet to announce whether she will be running for reelection. If she runs again she will be in for a major clash with Rep. Ruben Galago, who announced his bid for the Democratic nomination for Sinema in January 2023. At this stage, he is the most prominent candidate.

Sinema and Gallego may end up in a three way race with a Republican candidate. This could split Democratic-leaning voters, and give the GOP a much-desired victory. Gallego could also rally support among base Democrats — who have become increasingly disenchanted with Sinema over her opposition changing filibuster rules to pass key voting-rights legislation — along with Independents who have soured on the incumbent lawmaker.

These scenarios will not only affect Sinema’s standing in Senate but will also force Democrats into deciding whether to back Gallego or support her candidacy. The party wants to keep the seat from being taken over by the Republicans, as Democrats have made significant progress in Arizona in recent decades.

Blake Masters (2022 Senate nominee) and Kari Lake (2022 gubernatorial candidate), both potential GOP candidates. Blake Masters (who lost to Gov. Katie Hobbs and Senator Mark Kelly are respectively potential candidates. Jim Lamon (a former executive in solar energy) was mentioned as a possible candidate.

Michigan

Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow is a well-respected lawmaker, now in her fourth term. In January, she announced that she would not be running for reelection next.

Stabenow (the chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee) was most recently elected in 2018, by 6.5% against John James, the now-GOP Rep.

Republicans would very much like to flip this seat, but Michigan Democrats had a banner year in November — sweeping the top statewide offices and retaking control of the full legislature — and Biden is expected to compete hard in the state if he runs for reelection.

Lt. Governor is one of the potential Democratic candidates in the Senate race. Garlin Gilchrist II; Michigan Secretary-of-State Jocelyn Benson; Reps. Debbie Dingell (Elissa Slotkin and Rashida Talaib; former Rep. Brenda Lawrence

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (rep. Haley Stevens), and state senator Mallory McMorrow all rejected Senate campaigns.

Dana Nessel, Michigan Attorney-General, said in a January interview that she would remain at her current position.

Nikki Snyder, a member of the Michigan State Board of Education, is the first Republican to announce a candidacy for the Senate seat. 

James, Rep. Lisa McClain and former Reps. Peter Meijer, Mike Rogers and Tudor Dixon, 2022 gubernatorial candidate, could also be in the race.

Montana

Democratic Senator Jon Tester is a political survivor. He won his first election in Montana, a conservative-leaning state, in 2006. He then won tough reelection contests for the State in 2012 and 2018.

Tester wants to keep this streak going by announcing that he will run for a fourth term in the Senate in 2024.

Despite being a Republican, Tester’s political brand is strong and has been successful in appealing to both Republicans and Independents. Yet, Washington GOP leaders are still keen to fill his seat.

Ryan Zinke, Ryan Rosendale, and Matt Rosendale are possible candidates for the Republican party.

Nevada

Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen is running to a second term as a senator in one of the most competitive battleground state in the country. Rosen, a former first-term congresswoman, defeated Dean Heller, the then-GOP senator, by five points.

Rosen will be running for reelection in 2024. Nevada will then be a prime target for both the presidential nominees of each party.

Ohio

Sherrod, who was also elected in 2006 to the Senate, is running for a fourth time. Despite the reddening of Ohio which was once the nation’s top swing state, Brown has maintained a strong populist connection to his constituents.

Republicans will target this seat but Brown has proved to be an effective candidate adept in winning over Independents, and even a small fraction of conservative-leaning votes.

Republican state senator Matt Dolan is running for the nomination. He also ran in 2022 for the US Senate but was defeated in the Republican primary to Senator JD Vance.

Pennsylvania

Since 2006, Bob Casey Jr. won all three of his Senate races. He’ll be able to run again as a Democrat, in a presidential election year when turnout is likely to be high in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Casey is also a strong performer in the working-class areas of the state and could be able to post an electoral performance comparable to Fetterman.

Two potential Republicans who may enter the race are Doug Mastriano (2022 gubernatorial nomination nominee) and David McCormick (2022 Senate candidate).

West Virginia

While Sen. Joe Manchin is yet to declare his intentions for 2024 he is the likely only Democrat who could hold the seat in this difficult state. Trump’s second best performing state was West Virginia in 2020, so Manchin must win lots of ticket-splitters if he wants to be reelected to the capital. But he won in 2018, despite Republicans trying everything to defeat him.

Alex Mooney, a Republican Rep., has already declared that he will be running for the seat.

Wisconsin

Sen. Tammy Baldwin has not said whether she’ll seek a third term in the upper chamber, but even in politically-polarized Wisconsin, she has been able to win over many rural and exurban voters in addition to racking up large margins in the Democratic-heavy population centers of Milwaukee and Madison.

Republicans will almost certainly attempt to field a strong candidate. But Baldwin has been able navigate the divisions in her state in ways that have bedeviled members from both parties.